{"id":44662,"date":"2026-11-13T11:00:17","date_gmt":"2026-11-13T10:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/?p=44662"},"modified":"2026-10-23T14:37:01","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T12:37:01","slug":"war-areas-lose-capacity-to-feed-millions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/agricultural-industry\/war-areas-lose-capacity-to-feed-millions\/","title":{"rendered":"War-hit areas lose the capacity to feed millions of people"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Between 2000 and 2020, war-affected areas lost around 250,000 square kilometres of cropland. West Africa, Eastern Africa and Southeast Asia suffered the greatest losses<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">by Matteo Cavallito<\/p>\n<p>Armed conflicts <strong>reduce cropland area<\/strong> and undermine food production capacity, with effects that can persist for years. These are the findings of a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43016-026-01436-8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">study<\/a> published in <em>Nature Food<\/em> and conducted by researchers at the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In areas <strong>exposed to fighting<\/strong>, the study <a href=\"https:\/\/english.cas.cn\/newsroom\/research-news\/202609\/t20260929_1201585.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">identifies<\/a> an overall decline in cropland, with the frequency and severity of fighting helping to determine the scale of the losses.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"n4LZTwg85V\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/fao-ukraine-agriculture-war\/\">War affects one in four farmers in Ukraine, says FAO<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"\u201cWar affects one in four farmers in Ukraine, says FAO\u201d \u2014 Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/fao-ukraine-agriculture-war\/embed\/#?secret=LMCL9MJ6CN#?secret=n4LZTwg85V\" data-secret=\"n4LZTwg85V\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>Agricultural land is particularly exposed to war<\/h5>\n<p>The link between war and <strong>food insecurity<\/strong> is widely recognised. Its <a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/agricultural-industry\/ukraine-war-pollution-soil\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">long-term effects<\/a> on farmland, however, are less well understood, particularly at the global scale. To investigate them, the researchers combined \u201cannual high-resolution cropland maps (2000\u20132020) with <strong>more than 460,000 conflict events<\/strong> across 155 countries to assess how armed conflicts affect cropland loss and food security\u201d. Specifically:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cBy 2020, conflict-exposed areas within 5\u2009km of conflict events covered only 3% of global land but contained 6% of global cropland, indicating <strong>disproportionate exposure of agricultural land<\/strong> to conflict\u201d.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Farmland is therefore particularly at risk.\u00a0The decline in cultivated land near conflict sites is all the more striking given that <strong>global cropland area<\/strong> actually increased over the same period.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"9uPsD5WghS\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/ukraine-russian-invasion-forests\/\">Forests in Ukraine are collateral victims of Russian invasion<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"\u201cForests in Ukraine are collateral victims of Russian invasion\u201d \u2014 Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/ukraine-russian-invasion-forests\/embed\/#?secret=koFvsGsAyX#?secret=9uPsD5WghS\" data-secret=\"9uPsD5WghS\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>Losses are greater where fighting is frequent and prolonged<\/h5>\n<p>To distinguish conflict-related changes from broader environmental and socioeconomic trends, the researchers used statistical methods to compare cropland changes between conflict-exposed areas and otherwise similar areas unaffected by fighting. \u201cDifference-in-differences estimates show that conflict <strong>exposure caused an average annual cropland loss of 14.46\u2009ha<\/strong> per buffer-year and a 3% decline in cropland area\u201d, the study explains, identifying <strong>West Africa, Eastern Africa and Southeast Asia<\/strong> as the hardest-hit regions. Further analyses also &#8220;indicate 23.7% greater cropland loss&#8221; in conflict-affected areas than in similar areas without fighting.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The effects, however, vary considerably: the group experiencing the most frequent fighting <strong>lost around one-third of its cultivated<\/strong> land.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Prolonged and more severe conflicts are also associated with greater losses than intermittent or less severe conflicts. By contrast, areas transitioning to peace show no clear evidence of continued decline. <strong>Social and institutional conditions<\/strong> also matter: losses tend to be greater in countries with higher levels of displacement and food insecurity, while more effective government, better regulation and a stronger rule of law are associated with smaller losses.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"W8HqlPOU6o\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/fao-soil-pollution-report\/\">Soil pollution is responsible for 20% of agricultural productivity loss, FAO warns<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"\u201cSoil pollution is responsible for 20% of agricultural productivity loss, FAO warns\u201d \u2014 Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/fao-soil-pollution-report\/embed\/#?secret=zNSaxCqbxs#?secret=W8HqlPOU6o\" data-secret=\"W8HqlPOU6o\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>Protecting and restoring production potential<\/h5>\n<p>The consequences of war become even clearer when the losses are expressed in terms of potential food production. After accounting for cropland gains and for losses caused by urban expansion, the authors estimate that conflict-affected areas lost <strong>approximately 249,667 square kilometres<\/strong> of cropland between 2000 and 2020.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cPreventing these losses could have supplied <strong>dietary energy sufficient for 255.54 million people<\/strong> annually\u201d, the study notes.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The researchers stress that this figure is only an estimate of lost production capacity. It does not measure actual food consumption or how many people experienced hunger. Both also depend on trade, prices, distribution and access to food. The findings nevertheless highlight the need to <strong>monitor conflict alongside changes in cropland<\/strong>, combining immediate humanitarian assistance with sustained efforts to restore agricultural infrastructure, support farmers and strengthen local institutions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Between 2000 and 2020, war-affected areas lost around 250,000 square kilometres of cropland. West Africa, Eastern Africa and Southeast Asia suffered the greatest losses<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":44664,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[158,134],"tags":[176,320,201,314,239,221,247,188],"class_list":["post-44662","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agricultural-industry","category-articles","tag-africa-en","tag-agricoltura-en","tag-asia-en","tag-contaminazione-en","tag-crops","tag-food","tag-monitoraggio-en","tag-research"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>War-hit areas lose the capacity to feed millions of people<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Potential harvests from war-affected land alone could have fed more than 250 million people, scientists have found\" \/>\n<meta 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War reduces cropland area and undermines food production capacity, with effects that can persist for years. 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