{"id":39640,"date":"2025-06-16T11:00:38","date_gmt":"2025-06-16T09:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/?p=39640"},"modified":"2025-06-16T17:27:19","modified_gmt":"2025-06-16T15:27:19","slug":"climate-grain-yields-reduced","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/agricultural-industry\/climate-grain-yields-reduced\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate change has reduced grain yields by up to 13 percent in 50 years"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Warmer and dryer weather favors water stress thus impacting the productivity of wheat, corn and barley crops, a study from the Standford University has found. New investments and more accurate predictive models are needed for the future<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">by Matteo Cavallito<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Rising temperatures and reduced atmospheric moisture have caused a <strong>decline in global grain yields<\/strong> over the past half-century. This is supported by a <strong>Stanford University<\/strong> study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The findings of the survey are an important warning asfthe world faces several climate-related problems, including <a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/environment\/desertification-world-day-webinar\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">desertification and drought<\/a>, that are currently impacting agriculture.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe productivity of staple crops is a key factor shaping the affordability of food and the amount of land and other resources used in agriculture,\u201d the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/abs\/10.1073\/pnas.2502789122\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">study<\/a> observes. \u201cMost cropping regions have experienced both rapid warming and atmospheric drying, with significant negative global yield impacts for three of the five crops.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"Dk2GP3qxQq\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/global-desertification-soil-france\/\">France is the latest victim of global desertification<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;France is the latest victim of global desertification&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/global-desertification-soil-france\/embed\/#?secret=OeoSPMSgaD#?secret=Dk2GP3qxQq\" data-secret=\"Dk2GP3qxQq\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>Yield declines can be as much as 13 percent<\/h5>\n<p>The authors examined <strong>agroclimatic conditions<\/strong> affecting the world&#8217;s most widely grown cereal crops over the past half century. Most regions, they explain, have experienced rapid warming that has affected 45 percent of cultivated areas in summer and 32 percent of those managed in winter. Also rising is the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Vapour-pressure_deficit\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">vapour-pressure deficit<\/a>\u00a0(VPD), a key factor in plant water stress, which has increased in most temperate regions. Less noticeable, finally, is the change in rainfall.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Linking agroclimatic data to crop productivity, we estimate that climate trends have caused current global yields of <strong>wheat, maize, and barley to be 10, 4, and 13% lower<\/strong> than they would have otherwise been,\u201d the study explains.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Moreover, \u201cThese losses likely exceeded the benefits of <strong>CO2 increases<\/strong> (including improved plant growth and yield thanks to increased photosynthesis ed.) over the same period, whereas CO2 benefits likely exceeded climate-related losses for soybean and rice.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"ebxVcyzZDH\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/weather-extreme-crop-yield\/\">Two Dutch studies reveal the impact of weather on crop yields<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Two Dutch studies reveal the impact of weather on crop yields&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/weather-extreme-crop-yield\/embed\/#?secret=9xrlQqmjrO#?secret=ebxVcyzZDH\" data-secret=\"ebxVcyzZDH\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>The problem with prediction models<\/h5>\n<p>The research, the scientists explain, showed that the results were consistent with predictions expressed by climate models that have been in use for years. This consistency, however, actually hides <strong>two opposite errors<\/strong> that ended up substantially offsetting each other.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>In detail, in fact, \u201cmodels <strong>substantially overestimate the amount of warming and drying<\/strong> experienced by summer crops in North America.\u201d At the same time, however, they \u201c<strong>underestimate the increase in VPD<\/strong> in most temperate cropping regions.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>These findings, the research adds, \u201ccan help to guide adaptation efforts and <strong>model improvements<\/strong>.\u201d In particular, they can especially help scientists make more accurate predictions in the future. And to design more effective adaptation strategies.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"kgCFz3eWI5\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/artificial-intelligence-climate-soil\/\">Artificial intelligence predicts climate impact on European soil<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Artificial intelligence predicts climate impact on European soil&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/artificial-intelligence-climate-soil\/embed\/#?secret=lPlY8mPart#?secret=kgCFz3eWI5\" data-secret=\"kgCFz3eWI5\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>Climate change calls for new investments<\/h5>\n<p>The urgency of improving forecasting models and adopting more forward-looking agricultural policies, a researchers&#8217; statement says, had already emerged in a recent study published in March. The <a href=\"https:\/\/news.stanford.edu\/stories\/2025\/03\/investment-research-us-agriculture-productivity-slowdown\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">research<\/a>, conducted by Stanford researchers in collaboration with colleagues at <strong>Cornell<\/strong> and the <strong>University of Maryland<\/strong>, had suggested a <strong>slowdown in U.S. agricultural productivity<\/strong> in the coming decades and emphasized the need to counteract it by making significant investments in climate adaptation practices.<\/p>\n<p>Depending on different scenarios, the study explained, \u201coffsetting the climate-induced productivity slowdown by 2050 will require R&amp;D spending over 2021 to 2050 to grow at <strong>5.2 to 7.8%<\/strong> per year or by an additional <strong>$2.2 to $3.8B<\/strong> per year in addition to the current spending of ~$5B per year.\u201d An effort \u201ccomparable in ambition to the public R&amp;D spending growth that followed the two World Wars.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Warmer and dryer weather favors water stress thus impacting the productivity of wheat, corn and barley crops, a study from the Standford University has found. New investments and more accurate predictive models are needed for the future<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":39643,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[158,134],"tags":[320,187,239,229,188,322],"class_list":["post-39640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agricultural-industry","category-articles","tag-agricoltura-en","tag-climate","tag-crops","tag-drought","tag-research","tag-suolo-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Climate change has reduced grain yields by up to 13% in 50 years<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In 50 years, wheat, corn and barley yields are 10, 4 and 13 percent lower than they would be under normal circumstances\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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