{"id":39046,"date":"2025-04-25T11:00:21","date_gmt":"2025-04-25T09:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/?p=39046"},"modified":"2025-04-24T09:37:26","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T07:37:26","slug":"crisis-forests-climate-costs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/environment\/crisis-forests-climate-costs\/","title":{"rendered":"Crisis of forests may double climate mitigation costs"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>This is the hypothesis of researchers at the Potsdam Institute. Current models overestimate the mitigation potential of forests. In this scenario, a delay in response could make the climate goals unattainable<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">by Matteo Cavallito<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Without appropriate action, the <strong>degradation of forests<\/strong> &#8211; a still underestimated problem &#8211; will eventually <strong>jeopardize the achievement of climate goals<\/strong>. Delaying action, on the other hand, means facing a sharp increase in economic, political and environmental costs instead. This is argued in a new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-025-57607-x\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">study<\/a> published in Nature Communications.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAchieving the Paris Agreement&#8217;s CO2 emission reduction goals heavily relies on enhancing carbon storage and sequestration in forests globally\u201d explains the research conducted by the scientists of the <strong>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research<\/strong> (PIK). \u201cYet, the increasing vulnerability of carbon stored in forests to both climate change and human intervention is often neglected in current mitigation strategies.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"6qmvFpLdOT\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/climate-change-trees-boreal-forests\/\">More trees in urban boreal forests are getting killed by climate change<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;More trees in urban boreal forests are getting killed by climate change&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/climate-change-trees-boreal-forests\/embed\/#?secret=5yKswxz1n0#?secret=6qmvFpLdOT\" data-secret=\"6qmvFpLdOT\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>Forests are becoming increasingly fragile<\/h5>\n<p>The Earth&#8217;s ecosystem as a whole is capable of sequestering <strong>13 billion tons of CO2<\/strong> each year. Thus removing from the atmosphere about one-third of all anthropogenic emissions on the Planet. It is no coincidence, then, that today \u201cany conceived climate stabilization target relies on the continuity of this vast carbon removal service.\u201d Forests alone \u201caccumulate most of the carbon sequestered this way, constituting two-thirds or <strong>7.8 billion tonnes of CO2<\/strong> per year.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Forest ecosystems, however, \u201care vulnerable to environmental changes and direct human activities such as <strong>deforestation<\/strong> and degradation, <strong>rendering the permanence of the carbon<\/strong> <strong>stored in them uncertain<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The integrity of these environments, in short, is increasingly threatened by natural events-such as <a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/environment\/boreal-forest-climate-fire\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wildfires<\/a>, disease, <strong>drought<\/strong> and pests-exacerbated by global warming. As well as anthropogenic pressures such as <strong>deforestation<\/strong>. Yet the models on which global climate strategies are based <strong>often ignore these factors or severely underestimate them<\/strong>. The research, consequently, aimed to investigate the impact of this underestimation by also assessing \u201cthe consequences of postponed action to understand the importance of more accurate forest carbon projections for climate policy.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"zxGgjShKZI\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/enrichment-nutrients-forests-tropical\/\">Accumulation of nutrients threatens tropical forests<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Accumulation of nutrients threatens tropical forests&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/enrichment-nutrients-forests-tropical\/embed\/#?secret=Mp2Ad14uOh#?secret=zxGgjShKZI\" data-secret=\"zxGgjShKZI\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>A new model<\/h5>\n<p>According to the authors, in particular, models currently used to formulate climate policies make <strong>three mistakes<\/strong>: they underestimate hostile natural events, they overestimate <strong>fertilizer<\/strong>-induced plant growth, and finally, they incorrectly assume that there is \u201cperfect efficiency in replacing forest land with agriculture\u201d while ignoring the fact that, in many cases, cleared land actually remains unused for years.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>To properly account for all these factors, the scientists therefore <strong>combined two models<\/strong> to simulate the global energy system, economy, land use and forest growth. In addition, they assumed different levels of forest disturbance.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>In this way, the authors analyzed <strong>54 different scenarios<\/strong> to simulate decision makers&#8217; responses to different situations of forest degradation by calculating the cost of not taking timely action. According to their estimates, even a delay of only 5 years in responding to carbon loss from forests <strong>would double the cost<\/strong> of mitigation policies.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"KjfJLcVHDW\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/natural-restored-forests-co2\/\">Forests restored by nature can sequester 23 billion tonnes of CO2<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Forests restored by nature can sequester 23 billion tonnes of CO2&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/natural-restored-forests-co2\/embed\/#?secret=yjk0V4Qmzy#?secret=KjfJLcVHDW\" data-secret=\"KjfJLcVHDW\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>A 5 year delay costs twice as much<\/h5>\n<p>The reason, the researchers note, is obvious: delayed responses result in <strong>more costly emissions cuts and investments<\/strong> in carbon removal technologies when compared with those associated with immediate action even in the presence of more impactful disturbances. In just five years, for example, inaction would increase the need for land for mitigation interventions (such as reforestation or bioenergy) by about <strong>149 million hectares<\/strong>, an area larger than the entire European Union.<\/p>\n<p>Huge, then, is the impact on the carbon market. \u201cTaking immediate foresighted action on forest carbon loss (FCL) results in a 22% increase in carbon price in 2030 and 2050 and a peak GDP loss of \u22122.4%,\u201d the scientists explain. A delay, on the other hand, will result in &#8220;a <strong>48% increase in the carbon price<\/strong>, with a peak GDP loss of <strong>\u22122.7%<\/strong>.&#8221; A slow response, in other words, \u201cconsistently requires twice the effort, regardless of the disturbance rate.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"gvwUuCjTri\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/suolo-microbi-foreste-degradate\/\">Soil impacts on microbes in forests exposed to degradation<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Soil impacts on microbes in forests exposed to degradation&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/suolo-microbi-foreste-degradate\/embed\/#?secret=UlGr0ymRRk#?secret=gvwUuCjTri\" data-secret=\"gvwUuCjTri\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>Four strategies<\/h5>\n<p>\u201cRight now, our climate strategies bet on forests not only remaining intact, but even expanding,\u201d <strong>Michael Windisch<\/strong>, researcher and co-author of the study, explained in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pik-potsdam.de\/en\/news\/latest-news\/losing-forest-carbon-stocks-could-put-climate-goals-out-of-reach\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news release<\/a>. &#8220;However, with escalating wildfires like in <a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/environment\/climate-erosion-california\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">California<\/a>, and continued <strong>deforestation in the Amazon<\/strong>, that\u2019s a gamble. Climate change itself puts forests\u2019 immense carbon stores at risk.&#8221;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>To avoid policy failure, the authors recommend that decision makers pursue four strategies:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>a <strong>constant monitoring<\/strong> of forests;<\/li>\n<li>an <strong>update<\/strong> of climate models;<\/li>\n<li>an <strong>immediate <\/strong>conservation <strong>actions<\/strong> and decarbonization <strong>interventions<\/strong> in other sectors;<\/li>\n<li>a <strong>prudent use of reforestation<\/strong>, which, not well planned, risks increasing exposure to future disturbances.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u201cWe must act immediately to safeguard the carbon stored in forests,\u201d Windisch continues. \u201cOtherwise, <strong>compensating for potential forest carbon losses<\/strong> through steeper emissions cuts in key emission sectors like energy, industry and transport will become increasingly expensive and possibly unattainable.&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is the hypothesis of researchers at the Potsdam Institute. Current models overestimate the mitigation potential of forests. In this scenario, a delay in response could make the climate goals unattainable<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":39050,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144,134],"tags":[320,216,220,187,165,247,188],"class_list":["post-39046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","category-articles","tag-agricoltura-en","tag-amazon","tag-carbon","tag-climate","tag-forests","tag-monitoraggio-en","tag-research"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Crisis of forests may double climate mitigation costs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Integrity of forests is threatened by natural events exacerbated by climate change in addition to anthropogenic pressures\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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