{"id":38413,"date":"2025-03-05T11:00:10","date_gmt":"2025-03-05T10:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/articles\/clima-mortalita-temperature-estreme\/"},"modified":"2025-03-10T10:05:02","modified_gmt":"2025-03-10T09:05:02","slug":"climate-mortality-extreme-temperature","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/environment\/climate-mortality-extreme-temperature\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate change increases mortality caused by extreme temperatures"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Study tracks future climate mortality in Europe: fewer deaths from cold weather but many more casualties from extreme heat. The Mediterranean will pay the highest price<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">by Matteo Cavallito<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>During the 21st century, deaths related to <strong>extreme temperatures in Europe<\/strong> are set to increase. The trend will be particularly evident in the Mediterranean area, the region most vulnerable to the phenomenon. That is the conclusion of a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41591-024-03452-2\/figures\/3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">study<\/a> published in the journal Nature Medicine. The survey, which involved several research centers and health departments on the Continent, found that the expected decrease in cold-related deaths will not be enough to offset the <strong>increase in deaths<\/strong> resulting from excessive heat.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"sfw18bUT3o\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/climate-change-nitrogen-contamination\/\">Climate change and extreme events promote nitrogen contamination<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Climate change and extreme events promote nitrogen contamination&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/climate-change-nitrogen-contamination\/embed\/#?secret=YgRwzmufTy#?secret=sfw18bUT3o\" data-secret=\"sfw18bUT3o\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>Worst case scenario: more than 2.3 million deaths by 2099<\/h5>\n<p>The study analyzed the impact of climate change on <strong>854 European cities<\/strong> from 2015 to 2099. In the absence of adaptation measures, the authors explain, the upward trend will find continued confirmation. \u201cWith no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios in Europe,\u201d the study explains.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>In the worst-case scenario, the authors continue, they estimate \u201ca <strong>net death <\/strong>burden due to climate change<strong> increasing by 49.9%<\/strong> and cumulating 2,345,410 climate change-related deaths.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>This assumption, the research points out, predicts a total average <strong>warming of 4\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels<\/strong> that would bring the death rate up to 41.7 deaths per 100,000 people. If it were possible to contain the temperature increase to a maximum of 1.5\u00b0C, on the other hand, the impact would be significantly smaller with a mortality rate of 3.5 per 100,000.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_38362\" style=\"width: 1061px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-38362\" class=\"size-full wp-image-38362\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/clima-europa.jpg\" alt=\"Variazioni nette a livello di citt\u00e0 nei tassi di mortalit\u00e0 in eccesso legati alla temperatura per ogni livello di riscaldamento in assenza di adattamento al calore. I numeri in alto rappresentano i livelli di riscaldamento da 1,5 \u00b0C a 4 \u00b0C. I colori verdi indicano una diminuzione dei decessi in eccesso legati alla temperatura, mentre i viola un aumento. Immagine: Masselot, P., Mistry, M.N., Rao, S. et al. Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities. Nat Med (2025). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-024-03452-2 Attribution 4.0 International CC BY 4.0 Deed\" width=\"1051\" height=\"1185\" srcset=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/clima-europa.jpg 1051w, https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/clima-europa-266x300.jpg 266w, https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/clima-europa-914x1030.jpg 914w, https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/clima-europa-768x866.jpg 768w, https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/clima-europa-625x705.jpg 625w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1051px) 100vw, 1051px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-38362\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">City-level net changes in temperature-related excess death rates for each warming level under no adaption to heat scenario. Panels from top-left to bottom-right represent warming levels from 1.5 \u00b0C to 4 \u00b0C. Green colors indicate a decrease of temperature-related excess deaths while purple colors indicate an increase. Image: Masselot, P., Mistry, M.N., Rao, S. et al. Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities. Nat Med (2025). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-024-03452-2 Attribution 4.0 International CC BY 4.0 Deed<\/p><\/div>\n<h5>Mediterranean epicenter of the crisis<\/h5>\n<p>Climate change, the research points out, exacerbates existing regional differences in Europe. While some areas in the north may see a slight improvement, others in <strong>southern and eastern Europe<\/strong> could face significant increases in temperature-related mortality.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Particularly exposed to this risk are the <strong>Balkan regions and the Mediterranean area<\/strong>, already the focus of continental <a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/environment\/mediterranean-forests-face-desertification\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">desertification<\/a>, \u201cwith the highest net effects in Eastern Spain, Southern France, Italy and <strong>Malta<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Malta, the research continues, \u201cis the only country with estimated net increases in temperature-related deaths across all scenarios; the net death rate increase could reach up to <strong>almost 200%<\/strong> of the early twenty-first century levels. The increase could also exceed 80% in Spain.\u201d<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_17126\" style=\"width: 1346px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17126\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17126\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Schermata-2022-03-30-alle-19.46.02.png\" alt=\"La situazione della desertificazione in Europa - 3a decade marzo 2022. Indicatore combinato di siccit\u00e0. FONTE: JRC European Drought Observatory (EDO) Marzo 2022.\" width=\"1336\" height=\"1120\" srcset=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Schermata-2022-03-30-alle-19.46.02.png 1336w, https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Schermata-2022-03-30-alle-19.46.02-300x251.png 300w, https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Schermata-2022-03-30-alle-19.46.02-1030x863.png 1030w, https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Schermata-2022-03-30-alle-19.46.02-768x644.png 768w, https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Schermata-2022-03-30-alle-19.46.02-705x591.png 705w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1336px) 100vw, 1336px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-17126\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Desertification in Europe &#8211; 3rd decade March 2022. Combined drought indicator. SOURCE: JRC European Drought Observatory (EDO) March 2022.<\/p><\/div>\n<h5>With stronger policies, mortality could be reduced by two-thirds<\/h5>\n<p>Among cities, some large centers in the southern part of the Continent, such as <strong>Rome, Barcelona, Marseille and Naples<\/strong>, could face significant increases in heat-related deaths. At the same time, some Northern European cities, such as Aberdeen, Stockholm, and Helsinki, could benefit from lower cold-related mortality.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>This reduction, however, <strong>would fail to offset the overall impact<\/strong> of climate change.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u201cUnless strong mitigation and adaptation measures are implemented, most European cities should experience an increase of their temperature-related mortality burden,\u201d the study concludes. In contrast, if particularly stringent initiatives were taken, the projected excess deaths \u201ccould be <strong>reduced by at least two-thirds<\/strong>, outlining the health benefits of implementing strong policies to reduce carbon emissions.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Study tracks future climate mortality in Europe: fewer deaths from cold weather but many more casualties from extreme heat. The Mediterranean will pay the highest price<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":38365,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144,134],"tags":[220,187,222,228,227,188],"class_list":["post-38413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","category-articles","tag-carbon","tag-climate","tag-desertification","tag-health","tag-italy","tag-research"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Climate change increases mortality from extreme temperatures<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Particularly exposed are the Balkan regions and the Mediterranean area, already hit by continental desertification\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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