{"id":36799,"date":"2024-11-18T11:00:41","date_gmt":"2024-11-18T10:00:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/?p=36799"},"modified":"2024-11-25T14:59:23","modified_gmt":"2024-11-25T13:59:23","slug":"data-climate-change-ecosystem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/environment\/data-climate-change-ecosystem\/","title":{"rendered":"How databases anticipate the impact of climate on ecosystems"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Despite incomplete data, some models can effectively predict the impact of climate on biodiversity and the spread of plant species in a natural area<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">by Matteo Cavallito<\/p>\n<p>Climate change impacts on the development and spread of plant species. Determining how this happens and what concrete effects will occur, however, remains a complex task. In response to this problem, a group of researchers from the <strong>University of C\u00f3rdoba<\/strong> in Spain tested the effectiveness of some large <strong>biodiversity<\/strong> databases compiled by citizens. These databases, the authors explain in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.uco.es\/ucci\/es\/noticias-ingles\/item\/4849-massive-biodiversity-data-collection-improves-ecosystem-predictions\">news release<\/a>, could calibrate <strong>joint species distribution<\/strong> models, provided that more than 50 per cent of the species present in the area have been recorded. The results were published in the journal <em>Ecography<\/em>.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"wSVofZnhq9\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/carbon-sequestration-climate-storage\/\">Carbon sequestration should address the tough balance between climate and biodiversity<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Carbon sequestration should address the tough balance between climate and biodiversity&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/carbon-sequestration-climate-storage\/embed\/#?secret=Ua66Z3egjS#?secret=wSVofZnhq9\" data-secret=\"wSVofZnhq9\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>A new forecasting model<\/h5>\n<p>\u2018Anticipating the effects of global change on biodiversity has become a global challenge requiring new methods,\u2019 the <a href=\"https:\/\/nsojournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/ecog.07340\">study<\/a> explains. However, \u2018Approaches like species distribution models have <strong>limitations<\/strong>. This is why researchers around the world are still trying to replace mathematical models that only take into account environmental variables (such as climate or soil type) with alternative systems that also take into account the relationships between plants. Techniques \u2018based on the <strong>joint distribution of species <\/strong>(JSDMs)\u2019 fall into this category.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>However \u2018JSDMs rely on <strong>systematic surveys<\/strong> community data, and no assessment has been made of their suitability with <strong>unstructured opportunistic databases data<\/strong>.&#8217;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>To find out more, researchers Diego Nieto and Daniel Romera, from the Basic and Applied Plant Biology group at the same Spanish university, focused precisely on unstructured databases, i.e. those containing individual data from<strong> citizen observations<\/strong>. These collections, they explain, do not consider the relationships between species. But since they contain billions of individual pieces of information, they could still be used to calibrate models.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"ppd94vUm4j\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/climate-biodiversity-regenerative-grazing\/\">Climate and biodiversity impact the effect of grazing on soil<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Climate and biodiversity impact the effect of grazing on soil&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/climate-biodiversity-regenerative-grazing\/embed\/#?secret=s8zSxf9u2G#?secret=ppd94vUm4j\" data-secret=\"ppd94vUm4j\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>50% of the data is enough to make some accurate predictions<\/h5>\n<p>Starting with real databases, such as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gbif.org\">Global Biodiversity Information Facility<\/a> (GBIF), which contains more than three billion units of biodiversity data recorded through applications such as iNaturalist, the researchers created an artificial database to conduct the experiment by evaluating how well the model works. These informations \u2018<strong>mimics the limitations of such<\/strong> databases by subsampling complete co-occurrence matrices (i.e. original data)\u2019, the authors explain.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u2018We analysed how the completeness of opportunistic databases affects JSDMs regarding 1) the role of independent variables on species occurrence, 2) residual species co-occurrence (as a proxy of biotic interactions) and 3) species distributions.\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Working with the generated data, the scientists ascertained the model&#8217;s response by checking its possible use with existing individual databases. After calibrating the model by simulating different levels of recording (number of species reported as a percentage of the total present in an area) they obtained an answer. Models <strong>with 50% missing data<\/strong> \u2018are valid for estimating species niches and distribution, but interaction matrices require databases with at least 75% of completion data\u2019 the study explains.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"eIFjyKe5rg\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/clima-a-rischio-biodiversita-brasile-orientale\/\">Climate change puts 40 percent of biodiversity in eastern Brazil at risk<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Climate change puts 40 percent of biodiversity in eastern Brazil at risk&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/clima-a-rischio-biodiversita-brasile-orientale\/embed\/#?secret=mvp9NWNecB#?secret=eIFjyKe5rg\" data-secret=\"eIFjyKe5rg\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>Climate and biodiversity, two interlinked crises<\/h5>\n<p>According to the researchers, the study opens the way to the possibility of calibrating models to make <strong>predictions <\/strong>on the effect of climate change on<strong> biodiversity<\/strong>. By monitoring, in this way, the effectiveness of current plans to protect different plant species. The positive or negative relationships between them will be decisive in predicting their future distribution.<\/p>\n<p>There is a particularly strong link between climate and biodiversity. It is no coincidence, in this sense, that many observers have long since begun to take a particular approach to consider both problems together. Some, in particular, now <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2021\/jul\/04\/biodiversity-loss-could-wreck-the-global-financial-system-and-its-only-a-matter-of-time\">define<\/a> climate change and <strong>biodiversity loss<\/strong> as \u2018twin crises\u2019. Which, as things stand, <a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/climate-biodiversity-economy-in-crisis\/\">impact<\/a> on our own <strong>economic system<\/strong>, which is still heavily dependent on species diversity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite incomplete data, some models can effectively predict the impact of climate on biodiversity and the spread of plant species in a natural area<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":36804,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144,134],"tags":[200,187,204,247,188,186],"class_list":["post-36799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","category-articles","tag-biodiversity","tag-climate","tag-ecosystems","tag-monitoraggio-en","tag-research","tag-soil"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin 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