{"id":31580,"date":"2024-02-08T11:00:42","date_gmt":"2024-02-08T10:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/articles\/alluvioni-foreste-analisi-probabilita\/"},"modified":"2024-02-15T18:52:45","modified_gmt":"2024-02-15T17:52:45","slug":"floods-forests-analysis-probability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/environment\/floods-forests-analysis-probability\/","title":{"rendered":"Between floods and forests is a matter of probability"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Properly managing forests and preventing floods requires a paradigm shift, a Canadian study explains. That means replacing the deterministic approach with probability analysis and take all factors into account<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">by Matteo Cavallito<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It\u2019s time to recognize the power of healthy <strong>forests<\/strong> in managing global growing <strong>flood<\/strong> risk, and to shift towards more sustainable forestry practices and policy,&#8221; say two researchers from the <strong>University of British Columbia (UBC)<\/strong> in Vancouver, Canada. The call is part of a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0048969723082761#s0045\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">study<\/a> published in the journal Science of the Total Environment.<\/p>\n<p>The survey, in particular, states how for decades hydrology studies have &#8220;severely and consistently underestimated&#8221; the <strong>impact of deforestation<\/strong> on flooding. And it explains, at the same time, how necessary it is to rely on a new paradigm for analyzing the problem.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"m9Pr3OD8LO\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/flash-droughts-climate-research\/\">Flash droughts are becoming the new normal<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Flash droughts are becoming the new normal&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/flash-droughts-climate-research\/embed\/#?secret=MeWZWMGGGD#?secret=m9Pr3OD8LO\" data-secret=\"m9Pr3OD8LO\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>A change in approach is needed to prevent floods<\/h5>\n<p>For more than a century, explained <strong>Younes Alila<\/strong>, a UBC professor and co-author of the study with fellow researcher Henry Pham, scientists have chosen a deterministic approach in studying <strong>the link between deforestation and floods<\/strong>. But the truth, the researchers point out in a <a href=\"https:\/\/news.ubc.ca\/2024\/01\/24\/sustainable-logging-advocacy-flood-risks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">statement<\/a>, is that flood risk is influenced by many factors that interact over time in complex ways.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;The causes of floods are multiple and chancy and, hence, can only be investigated via <strong>a probabilistic approach<\/strong>,&#8221; the study states.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;Here we call for a causal inference framework to advance the science and management of the effect of any forest or its removal on flood severity and frequency.&#8221; Moreover, \u201cWe use the stochastic hydrology literature to infer a blueprint framework which could guide future research on the understanding and <strong>prediction of the effects of forests on floods<\/strong> in environments where rain is the dominant form of precipitation.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"b7i3IF5qW9\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/soil-moisture-droughts-floods\/\">Soil moisture is a key factor in predicting droughts and floods<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Soil moisture is a key factor in predicting droughts and floods&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/soil-moisture-droughts-floods\/embed\/#?secret=WfIHzkEXgO#?secret=b7i3IF5qW9\" data-secret=\"b7i3IF5qW9\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>Consider all the elements involved<\/h5>\n<p>To understand how deforestation can increase flood risk, scientists who rely on a deterministic approach are committed to describing the <strong>cause\/effect relationship<\/strong> between the two phenomena. The probabilistic paradigm, on the other hand, assumes that flood risk is influenced by many factors. These include, for example, the amount of snow on the ground, whether or not it melts. But also the amount of rain that falls, and the characteristics of the landscape.<\/p>\n<p>The <strong>probability<\/strong>-based approach, consequently, aims to consider these complexly interacting aspects as a whole over time. In this way, a more accurate overall picture can be provided. \u201cThe probabilistic approach is already well established in other disciplines such as climate change science,&#8221; spiega <strong>Pham<\/strong> says. &#8220;It is the most accurate method for evaluating the effects of deforestation on floods.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"bcXEXG0eb2\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/global-report-floods-droughts\/\">The water cycle has changed. And it favors floods and droughts<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;The water cycle has changed. And it favors floods and droughts&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/global-report-floods-droughts\/embed\/#?secret=qFuSim0ffg#?secret=bcXEXG0eb2\" data-secret=\"bcXEXG0eb2\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>Extreme rainfall events are becoming more frequent<\/h5>\n<p>The use of a new paradigm and, consequently, a better understanding of the problems can help prevent flooding by better protecting forest cover. This is a key issue in today&#8217;s picture of increasing frequency of the phenomenon. Early last year, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalwater.online\/globalwater\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/GlobalWaterMonitor_2022_SummaryReport.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">report<\/a> released by the <strong>Global Water Monitor Consortium<\/strong>, an initiative of the Australian National University, highlighted how global warming is altering the water cycle. Thereby increasing the incidence of the most extreme phenomena.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>That is, times when rainfall is either too abundant, to the point of <strong>increasing flood risk<\/strong>, or excessively scarce, such that it triggers <a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/climate-change-soil-drought\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">drought<\/a> phenomena.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>At the same time, Pham notes, deforestation causes more severe and <strong>much more frequent<\/strong> floods, which can have severe consequences. \u201cThey can negatively impact river ecosystems, degrade water quality in community watersheds, and cause sedimentation issues downstream,&#8221; he say. &#8220;Thousands of lives and many ecosystems further downstream of clear-cut logging stand to be affected.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Properly managing forests and preventing floods requires a paradigm shift, a Canadian study explains. That means replacing the deterministic approach with probability analysis and take all factors into account<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":31583,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144,134],"tags":[187,224,321,165,223,247,188],"class_list":["post-31580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","category-articles","tag-climate","tag-erosion","tag-erosione-en","tag-forests","tag-hydrogeological-instability","tag-monitoraggio-en","tag-research"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Between floods and forests is a matter of probability<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The causes of floods are multiple and can only be investigated using a probabilistic approach, explains a Canadian study\" 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