{"id":27953,"date":"2023-10-04T11:00:59","date_gmt":"2023-10-04T09:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/articles\/perdita-permafrost-superficiale-2100\/"},"modified":"2023-10-09T09:27:46","modified_gmt":"2023-10-09T07:27:46","slug":"near-surface-permafrost-loss-2100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/environment\/near-surface-permafrost-loss-2100\/","title":{"rendered":"Superficial permafrost could (almost) disappear by 2100"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>By the end of the century, near-surface permafrost may exist only in the highlands of eastern Siberia, the High Arctic and northern Greenland. As was the case 3 million years ago<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">by Matteo Cavallito<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Most of the <strong>near-surface permafrost<\/strong> could disappear between now and 2100. This is claimed by a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2301954120\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">study<\/a> by a team of scientists from the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Canada, the Netherlands, France and Sweden. The team, led by <strong>Donglin Guo<\/strong>, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Nanjing University, compared the current climate scenario with that of millions of years ago. The results were published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Our study indicates dramatically smaller-than-present near-surface permafrost extent in the geological past, under climate conditions analogous to those expected if global warming continues unabated,&#8221; write the authors quoted in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gi.alaska.edu\/news\/study-near-surface-permafrost-will-be-nearly-gone-2100\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">statement<\/a> released by the Fairbanks Geophysical Institute at the <strong>University of Alaska<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"5KwNnyxylJ\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/microbes-permafrost-released-carbon\/\">In Tibetan permafrost 54% of the carbon comes from microbes<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;In Tibetan permafrost 54% of the carbon comes from microbes&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/microbes-permafrost-released-carbon\/embed\/#?secret=Cf5lv9fvFL#?secret=5KwNnyxylJ\" data-secret=\"5KwNnyxylJ\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>The scenario? Like three million years ago<\/h5>\n<p>The term &#8220;<strong>permafrost<\/strong>&#8221; refers to the type of perennially frozen (but not necessarily ice-covered) soil found in some cold regions. Of particular interest to scientists is its<strong> surface layer<\/strong>, which is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.focus.it\/scienza\/scienze\/permafrost-cosa-accade-quando-si-scioglie\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">subject to melting<\/a> in the summertime. According to the authors, in particular, by the end of the century, permafrost located in the first 3-4 meters of soil depth could survive only in the highlands of eastern Siberia, the Canadian High Arctic archipelago and the northernmost part of Greenland,<\/p>\n<p>This would be, the researchers still explain, the same situation found in the warm period of the <strong>Middle Pliocene<\/strong>, an epoch about three million years distant from us. The comparison is based on a simulation based on the analysis of several factors, such as vegetation composition and <strong>soil characteristics<\/strong>. This leads to assumptions about surface air temperature and the extent of permafrost.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"A1OfjKm4kV\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/canada-carbon-project\/\">Canadian researchers start a soil carbon measurement project<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Canadian researchers start a soil carbon measurement project&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/canada-carbon-project\/embed\/#?secret=eB7VraFjsP#?secret=A1OfjKm4kV\" data-secret=\"A1OfjKm4kV\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>The study<\/h5>\n<p>&#8220;Studies of how permafrost responded historically during Earth\u2019s past warm periods are helpful in exploring potential future permafrost behavior and to evaluate the uncertainty of future permafrost change projections,&#8221; the paper states. &#8220;Here, we combine a surface <strong>frost index model<\/strong> with outputs from the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project to <strong>simulate the near\u2010surface<\/strong> (~3 to 4 m depth) permafrost state in the Northern Hemisphere during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, ~3.264 to 3.025 Ma).&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>On balance, the researchers explain, the simulations &#8220;demonstrate that near\u2010surface permafrost was highly spatially restricted during the mPWP and was <strong>93 \u00b1 3% smaller than the preindustrial extent<\/strong>&#8220;. Esse inoltre &#8220;are similar to near\u2010surface permafrost changes projected for the end of this century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and provide a perspective on the potential permafrost behavior that may be expected in a warmer world.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"gcfd21qq0c\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/carbon-soil-climate-change\/\">Subsoil carbon is particularly vulnerable to climate change<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Subsoil carbon is particularly vulnerable to climate change&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/carbon-soil-climate-change\/embed\/#?secret=Z8chof6r5e#?secret=gcfd21qq0c\" data-secret=\"gcfd21qq0c\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>The loss of permafrost will have consequences for the carbon cycle<\/h5>\n<p>According to <strong>Vladimir Romanovsky<\/strong>, a researcher at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute and co-author of the study, the loss of permafrost &#8220;will have widespread implications for human livelihoods and infrastructure, for the global carbon cycle and for surface and subsurface hydrology.&#8221; And the fears, of course, are related to CO2 leakage <a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/microbes-permafrost-released-carbon\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">as a result of thawing<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>To date, recalls an estimate <a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/microbes-permafrost-released-carbon\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">quoted<\/a>\u00a0 by the University of Arizona, permafrost contains, on a global scale, &#8220;a whopping 1,500 trillion grams of carbon (<strong>1,5 bn tonnes<\/strong>, ed.),. That&#8217;s twice as much as what&#8217;s stored in the atmosphere.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-022-29011-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">research<\/a> carried out last year by scientists at the University of Arizona, predictive models suggest that under current global warming conditions, thawing would affect 20 percent of the Arctic permafrost&#8217;s surface area and 60 percent of Alpine near-surface area in the future (but the time horizon is not defined).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By the end of the century, near-surface permafrost may exist only in the highlands of eastern Siberia, the High Arctic and northern Greenland. As was the case 3 million years ago<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":27956,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144,134],"tags":[220,187,247,237,188,186],"class_list":["post-27953","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","category-articles","tag-carbon","tag-climate","tag-monitoraggio-en","tag-organic-matter","tag-research","tag-soil"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Superficial permafrost could (almost) disappear by 2100<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Studies on the response of permafrost to climate change millions of years ago allow predictions to be made about events in the near future\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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