{"id":21277,"date":"2022-10-20T10:21:15","date_gmt":"2022-10-20T08:21:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/articles\/amazzonia-lula-bolsonaro-brasile\/"},"modified":"2022-10-21T19:36:44","modified_gmt":"2022-10-21T17:36:44","slug":"amazon-lula-bolsonaro-brazil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/environment\/amazon-lula-bolsonaro-brazil\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazilians choose their president and the fate of the Amazon forest as well"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>In Brazil the future of nearly 76 thousand sq. km of the Amazon depends on the October 30 ballot, a study released by Carbon Brief states. That is the amount to the expected deforestation decline if former President Lula succeeds<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">by Matteo Cavallito<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>A defeat of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil&#8217;s presidential election could save nearly <strong>76 thousand square kilometers<\/strong> <strong>of the Amazon<\/strong> forest from destruction by the end of the decade, says a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-bolsonaro-election-loss-could-cut-brazilian-amazon-deforestation-by-89\/\">research<\/a> released by Carbon Brief. The calculation, the environmental network claims, is based on the assumption that his challenger, former President <strong>Lula da Silva<\/strong>, &#8220;would follow through on a pledge to address illegal deforestation in the Amazon, in line with his previous presidency, while Bolsonaro would continue to oversee weak environmental governance that allows such activities to continue. It also assumes these conditions would remain the same out to 2030.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The study, conducted by a team of researchers from the University of <strong>Oxford<\/strong>, the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (<strong>IIASA<\/strong>) and the National Institute for Space Research (<strong>INPE<\/strong>), looked at different models for implementing the Forest Protection Code already approved by Brazil but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/publication\/where-does-brazil-stand-with-the-implementation-of-the-forest-code-a-snapshot-of-the-car-and-the-pra-in-brazils-states-2021-edition\/\">never fully implemented<\/a>. The ballot between the two candidates is scheduled for Oct. 30.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"9Duec93hHl\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/amazon-agriculture-climate-change\/\">Amazon agricultural boom is speeding up climate change<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Amazon agricultural boom is speeding up climate change&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/amazon-agriculture-climate-change\/embed\/#?secret=CSxC5ruchR#?secret=9Duec93hHl\" data-secret=\"9Duec93hHl\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>The pace of deforestation has increased under Bolsonaro<\/h5>\n<p>According to a <a href=\"https:\/\/unearthed.greenpeace.org\/2022\/02\/10\/deforestation-free-soya-farmers-amazon-destruction\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">survey<\/a> by the Brazilian NGO <strong>Instituto Centro de Vida<\/strong>, Greenpeace&#8217;s Unearthed and the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, after experiencing widespread deforestation between 2000 and 2004 that led to the destruction of <strong>nearly 28,000 square kilometers<\/strong> of land, the Amazon has since experienced years of relative calm. So much so that from 2004 to 2012 tree cutting <a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/soya-moratorium-amazon-destruction\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">decreased by 84 percent<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The trend was already reversed during Dilma Rousseff&#8217;s presidency. But it was with <strong>Bolsonaro<\/strong>&#8216;s election at the end of 2018 that forest destruction <strong>accelerated dramatically<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;For the past four years since his election, right-wing president Bolsonaro has weakened existing environmental protections and legitimised illegal activity,&#8221; Carbon Brief writes. The result, the organization says, is that the first three years of ruling by Bolsonaro, the Amazon has lost 34,000 km2, a territory larger than Belgium.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_21206\" style=\"width: 879px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-21206\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21206\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/deforestazione-lula-bolsonaro.jpg\" alt=\"Durante la presidenza Bolsonaro la deforestazione dell'Amazzonia \u00e8 aumentata a ritmi crescenti. Immagine: Carbon Brief Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International\" width=\"869\" height=\"541\" srcset=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/deforestazione-lula-bolsonaro.jpg 869w, https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/deforestazione-lula-bolsonaro-300x187.jpg 300w, https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/deforestazione-lula-bolsonaro-768x478.jpg 768w, https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/deforestazione-lula-bolsonaro-705x439.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 869px) 100vw, 869px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-21206\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">During Bolsonaro&#8217;s presidency, deforestation of the Amazon has risen at an escalating rate. Source of image: Carbon Brief Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International<\/p><\/div>\n<h5>Two scenarios for the Amazon<\/h5>\n<p>Brazil&#8217;s current Code obliges landowners to preserve a certain amount of forest on their property by restoring land that has been illegally stripped. In recent years, the organization argues, changes to the text and generally poor enforcement have been a part of Bolsonaro&#8217;s policies. According to <strong>Aline Soterroni<\/strong>, one of the researchers involved in the study, if the legislation persists in being ignored, deforestation would continue at an average annual rate of more than 10,000 km2 between now and 2030.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Experts, writes Carbon Brief, believe there is &#8220;little reason&#8221; to think that the Basic Law for the p<strong>rotection of the Amazon<\/strong> will be enforced should Bolsonaro be re-elected.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>If the Code were to be enforced &#8211;\u00a0 which is possibile only if <strong>Lula<\/strong> wins, researchers say &#8211; annual deforestation levels <strong>would be reduced by 89%<\/strong>. from 13,038 km2 today (2021 data) to 1,480 km2 at the end of the decade.<\/p>\n<div class='avia-iframe-wrap'>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"kX4eCds8x2\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/amazon-peru-cesvi-lavazza\/\">Amazon forest, a walnut can make a difference for local economy and climate change<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Amazon forest, a walnut can make a difference for local economy and climate change&#8221; &#8212; Re Soil Foundation\" src=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/amazon-peru-cesvi-lavazza\/embed\/#?secret=iUL1DpJD2n#?secret=kX4eCds8x2\" data-secret=\"kX4eCds8x2\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h5>Saving the forest is far from impossible<\/h5>\n<p>Lula&#8217;s expected commitment to Amazon protection, argues <strong>Carlos Rittl<\/strong>, senior policy advisor to the Oslo-based organization <a href=\"https:\/\/www.regnskog.no\/en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rainforest Foundation Norway<\/a>, is allegedly linked to his political rapprochement with former Environment Minister <strong>Marina Silva<\/strong>, &#8220;who oversaw much of his administration\u2019s successes in the Amazon,&#8221; Carbon Brief writes. After having been far in recent years, says Rittl, the two met to discuss &#8220;proposals for a more sustainable Brazil.&#8221; Operations to protect the Amazon, by the way, would not entail huge costs. Quite the contrary.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>According to a recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.perspectecolconserv.com\/en-minimum-costs-conserve-80-brazilian-articulo-S253006442200027X\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">study<\/a> by the Universities of Miami, Bel\u00e9m and Rio de Janeiro, transforming <strong>more than 80 percent<\/strong> of the forest into a protected area (as opposed to the <a href=\"https:\/\/resoilfoundation.org\/en\/articles\/brazil-amazon-spending-forest\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">current 51 percent<\/a>) would entail an initial expense of between $1 billion and <strong>$1.6 billion<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The intervention would involve the additional protection of 130 million hectares. And would result in maintenance costs expected to range <strong>between $1.7 and $2.8 billion<\/strong> per year. This would ultimately be equivalent to about half the amount spent by the <strong>European Union<\/strong> to protect its conservation areas. Which cover just one million hectares.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In Brazil the future of nearly 76 thousand sq. km. of the Amazon depends on the October 30 ballot, a study released by Carbon Brief states. That is the amount to the expected deforestation decline if former President Lula succeeds<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":21282,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144,134],"tags":[216,239,165,198,188],"class_list":["post-21277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","category-articles","tag-amazon","tag-crops","tag-forests","tag-latin-america","tag-research"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Brazilian elections, a vote for the future of the Amazon too<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The study has analyzed different models of implementation of the Amazon Protection Code approved in 2012 but not yet fully implemented\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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